During the Ohio Academy of Family Physicians’ (OAFP) quarterly board meeting on November 8, OAFP Lobbyist David Paragas analyzed the results of the 2020 general election and speculated on what challenges and opportunities those results are likely to present in advocating for the OAFP public policy agenda. The turnout of 74% registered voters in Ohio was amazing. Democrats voted early, Republicans voted on Election Day, and fraud was not an issue. Exits polls showed that voters’ top four issues were: the economy, health care, education, and COVID-19. President Trump outperformed his 2016 numbers in Ohio and did particularly well along the Ohio Turnpike corridor. President-elect Joe Biden outperformed Hillary Clinton in metro areas of the state. Ohio has officially shed its moniker as a “swing state”. Polling was substantially off in Ohio which will cause a re-evaluation of how polling is conducted now that the country is moving toward an election season rather that a single Election Day.
There was no party shift in Ohio’s Congressional races – 12 Republicans and four Democrats were elected to Ohio’s 16 seats in Congress. Justice Sharon Kennedy defeated Judge John O’Donnell and Judge Jennifer Brunner defeated Justice Judith French, bringing the balance of the Ohio Supreme Court from five Republicans and two Democrats, to four Republicans and three Democrats. Reapportionment will be a major issue for the court.
The political balance in the Ohio Senate is likely to remain the same – 24 Republicans and nine Democrats. Senator Stephanie Kunze, in a suburban Columbus district, is 41 votes ahead of her challenger Crystal Lett, but once provisional votes are counted, that small lead for Kunze is likely to disappear.
In the Ohio House, Republicans picked up three seats, changing the balance of political power from 61 Republicans and 38 Democrats, to 64 Republicans and 35 Democrats. House Republicans faced difficult challenges in the election due to a scandal involving former speaker Larry Householder. The election of a new speaker, Bob Cupp, and the unavailability of campaign funds tied up as a result of litigation against Householder. Republicans, as a result, were actually anticipating losses.
Paragas also speculated about what to expect in the upcoming lame duck session. With COVID cases spiking and no major political party shift in the Ohio General Assembly, lame duck session may not amount to much. Paragas anticipates movement on a capital appropriations bill and surprise billing legislation.
Looking beyond lame duck session, Ohio continues to lose moderate members on both sides of the aisle making negotiation and compromise more difficult. The state budget will be a difficult one due to reduced tax revenues caused by the coronavirus pandemic. As for the Supreme Court, Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor will not be eligible to run again due to age restrictions. She may because the court’s swing vote on issues.